Housing Starts in Canada | 2026 Data & Trends

Canada housing starts: March 2026

Canadian housing starts fell to 235,852 annualized units (SAAR) in March 2026, down 6% month-over-month from February’s 250,961. The six-month moving average declined 2.9% to 248,378 units.

Actual housing starts in urban centres (population 10,000+) totalled 16,398 units in March, up 10% year-over-year from 14,935 in March 2025. The year-to-date total of 49,206 units was up 9% from the same period last year, driven by stronger early-year activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

“March housing starts data point to a continued loss of momentum in housing construction, broadly in line with CMHC’s housing market outlook,” said Mathieu Laberge, CMHC’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President, Housing Insights.

Housing starts by province

Provincial housing starts data (trailing 12 months ending March 2026):

On a trailing 12-month basis, starts were lower in most provinces, with Saskatchewan (-18%) and Ontario (-8%) showing the largest declines, while Quebec (+9%) and PEI (+10%) were notable gainers.

Among Canada’s three largest CMAs, actual March starts were stronger year-over-year: Montréal was up 26%, Vancouver 21%, and Toronto 23%, each driven primarily by multi-unit activity.

Ontario’s housing starts challenge

Ontario’s annualized housing starts were 62,735 units as of March 2026, down from 68,524 the prior year (-8%). Despite a rebound in actual March activity in Toronto, the province’s trailing trend remains well below Ontario’s 2021 peak pace of roughly 100,000 units. Factors weighing on Ontario starts:

• Weak pre-construction condo demand continues to discourage developers from launching new projects
• Large pipeline of completions still adding to unsold inventory across the GTA
• Population outflows as Ontarians migrate to Alberta and other more affordable provinces
• Toronto’s March actual starts rose 23% year-over-year, but the 12-month trend remains lower overall

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic has noted that Ontario starts running below Alberta’s on a per-capita basis remains a historically unusual situation given Ontario’s population advantage.

Alberta’s strength moderating

Alberta’s annualized starts were 46,064 units as of March 2026, down 5% year-over-year. While activity has moderated, Alberta remains one of Canada’s stronger construction markets relative to population. Key drivers:

• Continued interprovincial migration from Ontario and other expensive provinces
• Relative affordability with average prices roughly 30% below Ontario’s
• Edmonton at 17,217 annualized starts, down 8% year-over-year
• Calgary at 24,023 annualized starts, down 4% year-over-year

Housing starts by city (CMA)

CMHC reports housing starts for Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). The following table shows annualized starts (trailing 12 months ending March 2026) for Canada’s largest urban centres:

CMHC highlighted actual March monthly changes for Canada’s three largest cities: Montréal posted a 26% year-over-year increase in actual starts, Vancouver rose 21%, and Toronto increased 23%, with multi-unit construction leading gains.

Notable trends on the trailing 12-month basis:

• Ottawa–Gatineau remains one of the stronger major-CMA performers (+10% year-over-year on a trailing basis)
• Toronto shows the largest trailing-12-month decline among major CMAs in this group (-16%)
• Vancouver and Montréal are comparatively steady near flat year-over-year
• Calgary remains elevated despite moderating from recent highs

What types of homes are being built?

Housing construction in Canada continues to be dominated by multi-family units (apartments and condos), especially across the largest CMAs.

Units under construction (November 2025)

As of November 2025, there were 356,000 residential units under construction across Canada:

The heavy concentration in apartments reflects the economics of urban land — high land costs make multi-family projects the only financially viable option in most major cities.

Housing completions

During 2023 (the latest full-year data available), 188,689 residential units were completed across Canada:

Note: CMHC has stopped reporting Canada-wide housing completion data on a monthly basis. The figures above are based on the last complete annual report.

Housing construction investment

Total investment in residential construction reached $185.70 billion over the twelve months ending October 2025, representing 8.3% annual growth. Non-residential construction investment totaled $81.37 billion over the same period, up 3.2%.

These investment figures remain elevated despite the decline in starts, reflecting higher per-unit costs driven by:

• Rising material costs (lumber, steel, concrete)
• Trade tariffs on U.S. imports (steel, aluminum, glass, appliances)
• Labour shortages in the construction sector
• Municipal development charges and fees

Housing starts trend: 2000–2026

Canadian housing starts have gone through distinct cycles over the past quarter-century, shaped by interest rate environments, immigration policy, commodity booms, and financial crises. The long-run data reveals that current levels — while below recent peaks — are roughly in line with the 2010s average.

Several patterns stand out in the long-run data:

• The 2009 trough (149,000 starts) remains the lowest point this century — Ontario’s current trajectory is approaching those recession-era levels on a provincial basis
• The 2002–2007 boom saw starts climb from 152,000 to 228,000, driven by easy credit and strong immigration
• The 2021 spike (271,000) was the highest annual total in over two decades, fuelled by rock-bottom interest rates and pandemic-era demand for housing
• The post-2021 decline has been gradual but persistent, with starts falling ~12% from 2021’s peak to current levels
• The 25-year average is approximately 210,000 starts per year — well below the ~550,000/year pace the federal government says is needed to hit its 3.87 million homes by 2031 target (announced in 2024)

Monthly housing starts trend

While annual data shows the big picture, the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) captures the volatility and turning points that news articles report on. The chart below shows the monthly SAAR from March 2024 through March 2026.

The monthly data reveals just how volatile housing starts are — swings of 10–15% from month to month are common, which is why economists focus on the six-month moving average (currently 248,378) rather than any single month’s reading. March’s 6% decline partly reversed February’s rebound, and the broader pattern since mid-2025 continues to show a choppy range with gradually softer momentum.

2026 housing starts outlook

CMHC’s Chief Economist has noted that March data points to a continued loss of momentum in construction activity. Several factors will shape activity for the remainder of 2026:

Headwinds

• Trade tariffs: Retaliatory tariffs on building materials (steel, aluminum, glass, appliances) are estimated to add $30,000–$50,000 to the cost of a new build, making many projects financially unviable
• Business uncertainty: Ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty are causing developers to delay new project launches
• Weak pre-construction sales: Developers in the GTA report very slow demand for new condo projects
• Rising vacancy rates: Higher vacancy rates in several markets reduce incentive to build rental units
• Slow population growth: Reduced immigration targets mean less demand growth than 2022–2024 levels

Tailwinds

• Government incentives: Federal and provincial programs aimed at boosting housing supply, including the removal of GST on new rental construction
• Big-city actual starts rebound: March actual starts rose in Montréal (+26%), Vancouver (+21%), and Toronto (+23%), showing monthly resilience even as trend measures soften
• Pent-up supply deficit: Canada’s structural housing shortage means there is long-term demand for more units
• Rate stability: While not stimulative, stable interest rates provide certainty for project planning

The six-month trend at 248,378 is now pointing lower, suggesting construction momentum is softening despite occasional monthly rebounds in major CMAs.

The housing supply gap

Canada’s housing supply remains well below estimated requirements. The federal government has targeted 3.87 million new homes by 2031 to restore affordability, which would require a sustained pace of roughly 550,000 starts per year — more than double the current rate.

At the current ~250,000 starts per year, Canada is falling increasingly further behind this target. The supply gap is most acute in Ontario and British Columbia, where population growth has outpaced construction for years.

Glossary

• Housing start: A start is counted when construction begins on the foundation of a new residential building
• SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — the monthly figure scaled to an annual rate, adjusted for seasonal patterns
• Urban area: Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs) with populations of 10,000 or more
• Multi-unit starts: Includes apartments, condominiums, row houses, and semi-detached homes in urban areas
• Single-detached starts: Stand-alone single-family homes in urban areas
• Housing completions: When a residential unit is completed and ready for occupancy
• Units under construction: Residential units where construction has started but is not yet complete
• Trend: A six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), used to smooth out month-to-month volatility

Related calculators

• Mortgage Calculator — calculate monthly payments on a new home
• Mortgage Affordability Calculator — find out how much home you can afford
• Land Transfer Tax Calculator — estimate closing costs when purchasing a new build
• Mortgage Down Payment Calculator — determine your minimum down payment

Data sources

• Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) — monthly housing starts, completions, and under-construction data
• Statistics Canada, Table 34-10-0135-01 — quarterly housing starts, under construction, and completions data
• TD Economics — Canadian Housing Starts — analysis and commentary on monthly CMHC releases
• Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) — resale market data and MLS statistics