Why past performance does not predict future returns
The TSX stocks that topped the charts over the last 5 years are not necessarily the best bets for the next 5 years. Several factors explain why:
Reversion to the mean: Sectors that outperformed (energy in 2022, tech in 2023–2024) often underperform in subsequent cycles as valuations normalize
Survivorship bias: Lists of “best performers” exclude stocks that declined significantly or were delisted — creating the illusion that stock-picking is easier than it is
Timing dependency: A stock’s 5-year return depends heavily on the start and end date — the same stock can appear in best-performer or worst-performer lists depending on the measurement window
What the data actually says: Roughly 65–80% of actively managed Canadian equity funds underperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over a 10-year period (SPIVA Canada). Most individual stock-pickers do no better.
Practical implication: For most Canadians, a low-cost Canadian equity ETF (VCN, XIC, ZCN) that captures all TSX stocks — including the big winners — without trying to predict them is the most reliable approach.