2026 Rate Announcement Schedule
| Date | Day | Time | Monetary Policy Report? | Summary/Press Conference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes |
| March 12, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ❌ No | ✅ Yes |
| April 16, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes |
| June 4, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ❌ No | ✅ Yes |
| July 30, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes |
| September 17, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ❌ No | ✅ Yes |
| October 28, 2026 | Wednesday | 9:45 AM ET | ✅ Yes | ✅ Yes |
| December 10, 2026 | Thursday | 9:45 AM ET | ❌ No | ✅ Yes |
The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is released 4 times per year alongside the rate decision. MPR dates include updated economic forecasts and a press conference with the Governor.
2026 Decisions So Far
| Date | Decision | Policy Rate | Change | Key Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 29, 2026 | Cut | 2.50% | -0.25% | Continued disinflation, soft economic growth |
| March 12, 2026 | Hold | 2.50% | 0% | Trade uncertainty, tariff risks, inflation near target |
Rate History Context (2024–2026)
| Date | Policy Rate | Change | Cumulative Change from Peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | 4.75% | -0.25% (first cut) | -0.25% |
| July 2024 | 4.50% | -0.25% | -0.50% |
| September 2024 | 4.25% | -0.25% | -0.75% |
| October 2024 | 3.75% | -0.50% | -1.25% |
| December 2024 | 3.25% | -0.50% | -1.75% |
| January 2025 | 3.00% | -0.25% | -2.00% |
| March 2025 | 2.75% | -0.25% | -2.25% |
| January 2026 | 2.50% | -0.25% | -2.50% |
| March 2026 | 2.50% | 0% (hold) | -2.50% |
What Happens on Announcement Day
| Time (ET) | Event |
|---|---|
| Before 9:45 AM | Markets speculate — bond yields, swap rates already pricing in expectations |
| 9:45 AM | BoC publishes the rate decision and press release |
| 10:00 AM | Monetary Policy Report released (4× per year) |
| 10:30 AM | Governor’s opening statement and press conference |
| Within hours | Major banks announce prime rate changes (if BoC changed rates) |
| Within 1–2 days | Variable mortgage rates and HELOC rates adjust |
| Within days–weeks | Fixed mortgage rates may adjust if bond yields move |
How Each Rate Outcome Affects You
Rate Cut (-0.25% or more)
| Product | Impact | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Variable-rate mortgage | Payment decreases (or more goes to principal) | 1–2 business days |
| HELOC | Interest cost decreases | 1–2 business days |
| Fixed-rate mortgage | May decrease if bond yields drop further | Days to weeks |
| HISA / savings accounts | Interest earned decreases | Days to weeks |
| GIC rates | New GIC rates decrease | Immediate to weeks |
| Prime rate | Drops by same amount as BoC cut | 1–2 business days |
Rate Hold (0%)
| Product | Impact | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Variable-rate mortgage | No change | — |
| HELOC | No change | — |
| Fixed-rate mortgage | Depends on bond market reaction to BoC statement | Variable |
| HISA / savings | No change | — |
| Prime rate | No change | — |
Rate Increase (+0.25% or more)
| Product | Impact | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Variable-rate mortgage | Payment increases (or less goes to principal) | 1–2 business days |
| HELOC | Interest cost increases | 1–2 business days |
| Fixed-rate mortgage | May increase if bond yields rise | Days to weeks |
| HISA / savings | Interest earned increases | Days to weeks |
| GIC rates | New GIC rates increase | Immediate to weeks |
| Prime rate | Rises by same amount as BoC increase | 1–2 business days |
Timing Your Mortgage Decisions
Variable Rate Mortgage
| Scenario | Strategy |
|---|---|
| BoC expected to cut | Wait — your rate will drop automatically |
| BoC expected to hold | No urgency — rate stays the same |
| BoC expected to raise | Consider locking into a fixed rate before the hike |
Fixed Rate Mortgage (New or Renewal)
| Scenario | Strategy |
|---|---|
| Bond yields falling (rate cuts expected) | Wait — fixed rates may drop further |
| Bond yields stable | Lock in now — get a 90–120 day rate hold |
| Bond yields rising (surprise inflation) | Lock in quickly before fixed rates increase |
| Uncertain outlook | Get a rate hold now (protects you if rates rise, you can renegotiate lower if they fall) |
Rate Hold Strategy
| Feature | Detail |
|---|---|
| What is a rate hold? | Lender guarantees a fixed rate for 90–120 days |
| Cost | Free — no obligation to accept |
| If rates drop | Ask for a lower rate (most lenders will honour the lower of hold or current) |
| If rates rise | Your held rate is protected |
| Best practice | Get a rate hold 90–120 days before your mortgage closes or renews |
How Markets Predict BoC Decisions
| Indicator | Where to Check | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|
| Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) | Bloomberg, financial news | Market-implied probability of rate change |
| Government of Canada bond yields | Bank of Canada website | Direction of fixed mortgage rates |
| Core CPI inflation | Statistics Canada (monthly) | If inflation is at 2% target — less pressure to cut/raise |
| GDP growth | Statistics Canada (quarterly) | Weak growth favours cuts; strong growth favours holds/hikes |
| Employment data | Statistics Canada (monthly) | Rising unemployment favours cuts |
| BoC Governor speeches | bankofcanada.ca | Forward guidance on next decision |
Key Dates Surrounding Announcements
| Data Release | Typical Timing | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| CPI (inflation) | ~3rd Tuesday of the month | Most important input for BoC decisions |
| GDP | ~1 month lag | Shows economic growth trajectory |
| Employment / Labour Force Survey | First Friday of the month | Jobs market health |
| Retail sales | ~6 weeks lag | Consumer spending strength |
| Housing starts | ~2 weeks lag | Real estate market activity |